Why will export sea freight rates rise sharply starting from May 2024?
Is the skyrocketing freight rate a disaster for China’s dehydrated garlic suppliers?
Analysis of today’s international logistics market:
The price increase for all routes this time mainly started in South America. The main reason for the price increase in South America is that Brazil will impose additional tariffs on Chinese new energy vehicles in July and beyond. BYD is planning to build a factory in Brazil and is expected to ship 20,000 containers, resulting in shipping capacity. It is not enough. COSCO has withdrawn its ships from West Africa and moved to South America, which has led to a general rise in West Africa! In addition, the United States has announced that it will impose 50-60% tariffs on China in the future, which in turn will lead some Chinese companies to increase their investment in South America!
European cargo volume is relatively stable, but due to the impact of the Houthi Red Sea crisis, the shipping schedule is long, resulting in an increase in the number of ships that need to be operated, which will also lead to a relatively tight shipping capacity.
♦To sum up the objective factors mentioned above, the subjective and tacit agreement of ship owners to work together to raise prices is also a relatively big factor this time!
Based on empirical judgment and the current future price trends of some shipping companies:
1. The price increase trend in South America is expected to continue until early June (expected to be 6,000 large containers in Mexico and 8,000 in Brazil)
2. It is a bit difficult to reduce prices relatively stably in the Middle East. Price increases are currently facing resistance and may be slightly reduced or maintained.
3. European shipping companies have a strong willingness to increase prices and are supported by a small amount of cargo. Shipping companies have 2-3 ships that do not come every month, which has a great impact. CMA has two ships that do not go to Hamburg, making it difficult to find positions in Hamburg recently. , it is not expected to increase in June, and the large counter is expected to be 5,000 in late May.
4. There is a slight increase in Southeast Asia, and the increase is expected to be 50 US dollars per week (some shipping companies are more than 50)
5. Affected by the reduction in shipping capacity in Africa and the general increase in shipping companies, East Africa is expected to be about 3,500-4,000.
♦Strategy: If you really have a plan, you can consider occupying a few positions appropriately. In addition, you should also pay attention to changes in designated cargo. Slow release of designated cargo means that the position is indeed tight. In this case, you must plan early! Then you can get closer to the ship before departure. If you pick up any leaks in about 5 days and look for current cabins, there may also be relatively cheap positions!
Therefore, if there is a dehydrated garlic supplier with a CIF deal, it will be a real disaster for the dehydrated garlic industry that already has meager profits.
So, what will the price be in June? Some customers said that they would not ship it yet because the sea freight is too expensive. They will definitely ship it in June. We will wait and see.
Post time: May-23-2024